Pre-tourney Rankings
Illinois St.
Missouri Valley
2016-17
Overall
Predictive Rating+9.3#59
Expected Predictive Rating+11.6#41
Pace61.9#309
Improvement+1.2#110

Offense
Total Offense+1.0#145
First Shot-0.5#187
After Offensive Rebound+1.5#73
Layup/Dunks-1.6#240
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#149
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#93
Freethrows-2.0#296
Improvement-1.1#236

Defense
Total Defense+8.3#20
First Shot+9.2#8
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#282
Layups/Dunks+7.1#3
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#172
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#143
Freethrows+1.2#100
Improvement+2.2#56
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.4% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 18.4% n/a n/a
Average Seed 11.7 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four17.6% n/a n/a
First Round8.3% n/a n/a
Second Round2.3% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen0.5% n/a n/a
Elite Eight0.1% n/a n/a
Final Four0.0% n/a n/a
Championship Game0.0% n/a n/a
National Champion0.0% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2016 202   @ Murray St. L 70-73 80%     0 - 1 -2.7 -5.0 +2.3
  Nov 16, 2016 148   Purdue Fort Wayne W 75-57 84%     1 - 1 +16.5 +6.0 +12.2
  Nov 21, 2016 37   @ TCU L 71-80 32%     1 - 2 +5.2 +4.7 +0.4
  Nov 30, 2016 205   IUPUI W 77-63 91%     2 - 2 +8.6 +2.2 +7.0
  Dec 03, 2016 118   New Mexico W 79-74 81%     3 - 2 +5.1 +6.8 -1.7
  Dec 07, 2016 126   @ Tulsa L 68-70 68%     3 - 3 +2.5 +3.8 -1.4
  Dec 10, 2016 211   Tennessee Martin W 74-57 91%     4 - 3 +11.4 -2.0 +13.8
  Dec 18, 2016 179   Saint Joseph's W 81-72 88%     5 - 3 +5.8 +8.7 -2.8
  Dec 22, 2016 264   @ Hawaii W 71-45 88%     6 - 3 +22.5 +8.8 +17.6
  Dec 23, 2016 104   San Francisco L 58-66 70%     6 - 4 -4.1 -6.4 +1.8
  Dec 25, 2016 126   Tulsa W 68-56 76%     7 - 4 +14.0 -3.4 +17.3
  Dec 29, 2016 154   Evansville W 62-50 85%     8 - 4 1 - 0 +10.0 -7.1 +18.0
  Jan 01, 2017 102   @ Loyola Chicago W 81-59 60%     9 - 4 2 - 0 +28.7 +16.8 +13.4
  Jan 04, 2017 130   Missouri St. W 74-71 OT 83%     10 - 4 3 - 0 +2.2 -2.5 +4.6
  Jan 07, 2017 191   @ Indiana St. W 77-58 78%     11 - 4 4 - 0 +20.0 +23.9 +0.2
  Jan 11, 2017 144   @ Southern Illinois W 60-53 70%     12 - 4 5 - 0 +10.7 -3.0 +14.6
  Jan 14, 2017 9   Wichita St. W 76-62 26%     13 - 4 6 - 0 +30.0 +19.2 +12.4
  Jan 18, 2017 199   @ Bradley W 69-49 80%     14 - 4 7 - 0 +20.4 +7.1 +15.9
  Jan 21, 2017 255   Drake W 72-58 94%     15 - 4 8 - 0 +6.0 -3.2 +9.8
  Jan 25, 2017 191   Indiana St. W 71-66 89%     16 - 4 9 - 0 +1.0 +4.1 -2.8
  Jan 29, 2017 154   @ Evansville W 69-59 72%     17 - 4 10 - 0 +13.1 +4.2 +9.8
  Feb 01, 2017 153   Northern Iowa W 57-51 85%     18 - 4 11 - 0 +4.0 -1.5 +6.6
  Feb 04, 2017 9   @ Wichita St. L 45-86 14%     18 - 5 11 - 1 -19.9 -15.4 -6.7
  Feb 07, 2017 255   @ Drake W 82-53 87%     19 - 5 12 - 1 +26.1 +8.6 +18.2
  Feb 11, 2017 199   Bradley W 64-50 90%     20 - 5 13 - 1 +9.3 -6.3 +16.3
  Feb 15, 2017 130   @ Missouri St. W 67-66 69%     21 - 5 14 - 1 +5.3 +4.8 +0.6
  Feb 19, 2017 102   Loyola Chicago W 65-63 77%     22 - 5 15 - 1 +3.6 +6.5 -2.5
  Feb 22, 2017 144   Southern Illinois W 50-46 84%     23 - 5 16 - 1 +2.6 -13.0 +16.5
  Feb 25, 2017 153   @ Northern Iowa W 63-42 72%     24 - 5 17 - 1 +24.1 +19.4 +12.2
  Mar 03, 2017 154   Evansville W 80-69 80%     25 - 5 +11.6 +8.3 +3.4
  Mar 04, 2017 144   Southern Illinois W 63-50 78%     26 - 5 +14.2 +3.2 +13.5
  Mar 05, 2017 9   Wichita St. L 51-71 19%     26 - 6 -1.4 -5.3 +0.9
Projected Record 26.0 - 6.0 17.0 - 1.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 100.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 100.0    100.0
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 100.0% 18.4% 18.4% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 5.2 12.7 0.1 81.6 18.4%
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 18.4% 0.0% 18.4% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 5.2 12.7 0.1 81.6 18.4%